Donald Trump was never serious about affordability in the first place. He called it a “hoax,” as if it were a new word invented by Democrats to criticize him.
Once he realized his base was serious about affordability, he changed his tune, first saying he was ending the crisis.
Trump then upgraded his comments, saying he’d beaten affordability.
The truth is, Trump, with his tariffs, was the biggest single reason affordability was an issue. Even after the Supreme Court found his tariffs unconstitutional, he doubled down and announced new tariffs under a different method because his ego wouldn’t allow him to do otherwise. No matter how much it costs the American people.
Trump forgot all about affordability when he activated this war against Iran, given the related increase in oil and energy prices. Europe has already seen a 45% increase in gas prices. Qatar has temporarily suspended production of natural gas and oil, and tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz have slowed.
The global energy system is built on a fragile network of supply routes, refineries, and shipping lanes. A war in Iran threatens several of these simultaneously.
Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz waterway. Any threat to shipping, whether from missile strikes, naval conflict, or insurance withdrawals, forces tankers to reroute or halt entirely. Even the possibility of disruption pushes oil futures higher. Analysts note that restrictions in the Strait would “inevitably” cause crude prices to jump.
Energy markets price in fear. When a major producer like Iran is attacked, traders assume supply will tighten. That fear alone can add $5–$10 per barrel to crude oil prices, which translates to roughly 20–25 cents more per gallon of gasoline for U.S. consumers.
Iran’s production is deeply intertwined with OPEC’s balancing strategy. War reduces Iran’s output and forces other producers to decide whether to compensate. If they don’t or can’t, prices rise globally.
Tankers entering the Gulf already face higher insurance premiums. When premiums spike, shipping companies pass those costs directly into the price of delivered oil.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. respond quickly to global oil shocks. Even though it takes about six weeks for crude oil to be refined into gasoline, dealers raise prices almost immediately when oil prices spike. As one energy economist put it, “If the price of oil goes up, the price of gas goes up in lockstep.”
The national average was already rising before the conflict, sitting near $3.00 per gallon. A sustained conflict could push that significantly higher, especially if crude crosses the $100-per-barrel threshold — something analysts warn is possible if the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.
Natural gas and oil markets are linked. When oil rises sharply, utilities often face higher input costs, which can raise winter heating bills and electricity prices. Airlines pass higher fuel costs to passengers, making travel more expensive. Higher diesel prices raise the cost of transporting goods, which feeds into food prices and retail costs.
Americans were already navigating an affordability crisis, and energy is one of the most sensitive components of household budgets. Even small increases in gas prices strain families living paycheck to paycheck. Americans are likely to feel “immediate effects at the pump” at a moment when budgets are already tight.
The cost of that tradeoff is real. Families don’t get to suspend their rent, their groceries, or their commutes because the world is on fire. They feel every uptick in gas prices, every surge in heating costs, every ripple that moves from global conflict to household budget. And when leaders pivot from “I’ve won affordability” to “we’re entering a generational conflict,” they are admitting — without saying it aloud — that the economic promises made to voters were never insulated from the foreign policy choices made above their heads.
Gas prices in the United States have already begun rising since the new Iran war broke out, and every major energy and financial outlet is reporting the same pattern: an immediate jump driven by oil-market fear, followed by a likely multi‑week climb as the conflict continues.
The national average price of unleaded gasoline has risen to about $2.997 per gallon, up 2% from a week earlier. Analysts expect some stations to raise prices by as much as 30 cents per gallon within days, especially in the Midwest and Texas, where increases were already visible. U.S. crude jumped 6% immediately after the U.S.–Israel strike on Iran. Brent crude surged nearly 9%, hitting its highest level in more than a year.
Gas had been one of the few areas where Americans were seeing relief. Now, with prices rising again, households already strained by food, housing, and healthcare costs are facing a renewed squeeze. This is why analysts warn that the Iran conflict could undermine claims that inflation is “tamed” and reignite broader price pressures.
Forget about affordability. Trump’s war, which may well become a forever war, has mandated that inflation will rise, and every adult American will bear the brunt. People already realize the reasons given for starting the war are lies. There is no “imminent threat” to American cities. Iran wasn’t going to create a nuclear weapon within a week out of what Trump said was “obliterated” a week before. Does anyone believe Trump cared deeply about the Iranian people when he doesn’t give a damn about Americans who aren’t rich?
It truly does cost to be the boss.