Why Donald Trump is Ignoring DC's Lower Crime Rate Metric
Photo by Felix MacLeod / Unsplash

Why Donald Trump is Ignoring DC's Lower Crime Rate Metric

If more Americans knew the truth, would they still support this?

Despite lower crime rates in Washington, DC, President Trump sent federal law enforcement agencies to occupy the district. The images and videos circulating online have shown officers targeting individuals in black communities, in some cases exhibiting violence. For instance, in one clip, we can see a group of officers beating a Black man who recorded them using his phone. How did we get here? Injustice becomes routine when the public buys into racist stereotypes that portray Black people as inherently criminal. Such ideas open the door for over policing like this. That brings us to the central question of this essay — why do some ignore low crime rates? Far too often, this strategy acts as a thin veil for racism, a way to garner public support for brutal tactics, such as militarized patrols in our streets. It's one explanation for why some describe black communities as dangerous, regardless of the actual crime rate.

If the end game for the current administration were truly crime reduction, they would celebrate the progress made in DC. Instead, the Trump administration has seemingly overlooked this data and adopted an aggressive, boots-on-the-ground approach. It's like someone ordering a crane for a job they can accomplish with an 8-foot ladder. Armed, uniformed officers, including ICE, DEA, FBI, and members of the National Guard, can be seen patrolling communities. It's the type of imagery you would expect to see in an openly fascist regime, not America, the so-called land of the free. Of course, those who know the nation's history will see this as a return to explicitly targeting racial minorities, not something entirely new. It's clear there are layers of liberty in this country. And sadly, these policies keep Black people marginalized. Something is happening.

While some may dismiss the presence of federal officers in black communities as more of the same, after all, Black people have endured a long history of over policing in this country. Still, what we're seeing underway now is an escalation of these policies. Months ago, as Trump authorized mass deportation raids, going after Latinos and other non-white immigrants, a few Black people argued, "This is not our fight," urging some to avoid protests and stay home. But now that the administration has sent federal officers to patrol predominantly black communities in DC, the threat should be crystal clear even to the skeptical— this administration will spare neither black nor brown people. While some people believe tough-on-crime policies keep communities safe, American law enforcement has historically targeted racial minorities. The fact that Black people are nearly eight times more likely to be falsely convicted of serious crimes demonstrates the harm of maintaining these policies under the guise of public safety.

The fact is, crime rates are lower than they once were in Washington, DC. Police data shows violent crimes dropped by 26%, robberies by 30%, and sex abuse by 48% from 2024 to 2025. If data mattered at all to Republican leaders, they'd want to study factors that contributed to this crime reduction. The Council on Criminal Justice reported that ever since the summer of 2023, there has been "an unmistakable and large drop in reported violence in the District." Authors also noted, "that downward trend is consistent with what's being reported in other large cities across the country." While there is more than city leaders can do, it's an unfounded claim to suggest crime is on the rise. For instance, Mayor Brandon Scott of Baltimore employed a multi-layered approach in Baltimore without drastically increasing police presence. Instead, he extended social services to citizens and adopted a research-driven plan to address high-risk populations. These efforts resulted in the city's homicide rate hitting a fifty-year low. If Donald Trump and other conservatives truly wanted to lower crime rates in America's cities, they'd pay attention to the data.

The Trump administration is treating Washington, DC, like a war zone. And three Republican-led states are sending hundreds of national troops, which signifies there's an increased appetite on the right for this type of initiative. The "tough on crime" rhetoric of the past is returning, full steam ahead, regardless of any actual data on crime levels. While some conservatives claim this increased federal law enforcement presence is needed to crack down on "crime and homelessness," their assertion overlooks evidence-backed methods that are far more effective than traditional policing. It's distressing to see federal officers, paid with our tax dollars, destroy encampments and arrest people who have nowhere else to go. More police on the streets, regardless of what department they hail from, doesn't reduce crime; addressing root problems, such as poverty and systemic neglect of communities, does.

In my opinion, Donald Trump and others ignore low crime rates because it doesn't fit into their narrative. The only way they can justify these racist policies and garner support for their continuation is by claiming black communities are irredeemably crime-ridden. It's the same strategy used to demonize immigrants by claiming they're involved in criminal behavior. In reality, undocumented people are less likely to commit crimes than American citizens. But far too often, these inconvenient facts are overlooked. This disregard is intentional because acknowledging lower crime rates in Black and immigrant communities would expose the wanton cruelty of endorsing these policies. Without the veil, we'd see cold, ugly racism that's inspiring standing troops in Black communities. Sad to say, but that's what's playing out in Washington, DC. And it's not an isolated problem. Trump has suggested that cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, Oakland, Baltimore, and New York need the same type of militarized occupation.

Baltimore's Brandon Scott pushed back, telling the press, "I think it’s very notable that each and every one of the cities called out by the president has a Black mayor, and most of those cities are seeing historic lows in violent crime." He added, "The president could learn from us instead of throwing things at us." The mayor of Oakland, Barbara Lee, said, "We're not going to allow a military occupation of our city." Black leaders are pushing back, arguing against the strategies implemented in Washington, DC. To do this, as crime rates are low, exposes the racism in these policies. If this were really about making our communities safer, they would adopt research-backed strategies.

Instead, what we're seeing is a military style crackdown on Black people despite low crime rates in their communities. What we're witnessing are armed federal agents ripping away hardworking, law-abiding people from their workplaces, their schools, and other safe havens in their communities. Hopefully, enough Americans will see through the smog to make a difference — these aggressive tactics are not about law and order. If it were, the data would matter. But acknowledging low crime rates would expose such tactics as unnecessary and gratuitous. This law-and-order spiel is the same as it has always been in America — a false premise for racist policies. If America is ever going to overcome this dark period, it must come to grips with this reality.

There are some on the far right who seem to support ethnic cleansing. For instance, Ben Johnson, a far-right activist who gained notoriety from writing opinion pieces for Breitbart, now has a show on C-SPAN networks. On the Benny show, he suggested recently that "entire neighborhoods, probably, need to be empty, need to be bulldozed." He claimed that, "if you're a proud patriot," then you should support the Trump administration's takeover of DC. He claimed "there are places that are so crime-ridden and so infested that you're going to have to crack down," suggesting that Washington, DC must be "swept clean." To be clear, they're not talking about bulldozing the suburbs, but urban areas where many Black people live. We've reached the point where propaganda about high crime is being used to manufacture consent for racist policies. Americans should prioritize facts that point to low crime rates over stereotypical assumptions. But, if history is any indication, that may be an uphill battle.

This post originally appeared on Medium and is edited and republished with author's permission. Read more of Allison Gaines' work on Medium.