America has seen the template for this. After the Civil War, federal troops occupied the former Confederate States, returning to the Union. Military control came in stages. Abraham Lincoln was assassinated six days after General Lee surrendered at Appomattox, so it was left to his replacement, Andrew Johnson, to oversee Reconstruction.
Johnson was an avid segregationist and was placed on the ticket during Lincoln’s second Presidential campaign to balance the ticket and ease concerns of those Southerners who opposed secession. Johnson, a Democrat, was the only Southern senator who remained loyal to the Union after secession. His appointment sent a message that the war wasn’t against the South as a whole but against rebellion.
Johnson favored forgiveness and a lenient approach to Reconstruction, putting him at odds with Radical Republicans, leading to deep divisions and his Impeachment. Johnson stationed troops across the South to maintain order and support the Freedmen’s Bureau. Troops were intended to enforce emancipation, a job not taken too seriously as the Ku Klux Klan rose in prominence.
Congress became frustrated with Johnson’s approach and passed the Military Reconstruction Acts over Johnson’s veto. These acts established martial law in all the Southern states except Tennessee, which had already adopted the 14th Amendment. The Rebel States under military rule were grouped into five military districts or occupation departments:
- Virginia
- North and South Carolina
- Georgia, Alabama, and Florida
- Mississippi and Arkansas
- Texas and Louisiana
Congress empowered military commanders to suspend or remove any state officer and to provide for the performance of his duties either “by the detail of some competent officer or soldier of the army, or by the appointment of some other person, and to fill vacancies occasioned by death, resignation, or otherwise.” The military was exempted from civilian oversight, which Johnson also vetoed but was overridden. The troops were further empowered by the passage of the Anti-Klan Acts of 1870 and 1871. Troops acted as peacekeepers, enforced civil rights laws, and protected freedmen and Unionists from violence and intimidation. In May of 1865, a million Union soldiers occupied the South.
The military, empowered by Congress, controlled the South. The military takeover ended gradually as individual states adopted the Reconstruction Amendments and ended after the Compromise of 1877, following a contested presidential election. Republicans kept the presidency with Rutherford B. Hayes assuming the post. Democrats and the South got their freedom and the promise that troops would never return via the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. A combination of the Klan, Red Shirts, White Leagues, and Councils saw to the end of Reconstruction and the imposition of Jim Crow laws.
In 1865, federal troops took over the South as directed by the president and a Congress that ultimately exceeded President Johnson’s desires. It was a legal process where Congress passed laws and overrode presidential vetoes as provided for in the Constitution. The Posse Comitatus Act theoretically bars the military from performing law enforcement duties inside the United States. Still, there are multiple exceptions, such as when defending integration at Little Rock Central in 1957, the 1992 Los Angeles riots, and after Hurricane Katrina. The Insurrection Act allows the president to deploy federal troops to suppress insurrection, rebellion, or domestic violence. We’ve learned recently that a president willing to declare an emergency at every turn has few guardrails.
Members of the armed forces have sworn an oath to the Constitution and not to any individual. Officers are not supposed to give illegal orders, nor are soldiers expected to comply. But imagine that top military leaders have been weeded out, replaced by civilians with allegiance only to a man. In the current environment, any illegal order can be accompanied by a statement providing an alleged legal basis or emergency. Refusing to obey an order, however unlawful on its face, could be deemed treasonous behavior with penalties up to and including death. The military has already taken to the field in opposition to Black Lives Matter, protesters in Los Angeles, and in the streets of the Capitol. The question isn’t whether the military will violate Posse Comitatus under the president's direction, but whether there are any limits.
Individual states control National Guard units, though the federal government may federalize them. We saw the federal government take control of California’s National Guard against the governor's wishes. There are alleged plans to send Texas Guard units to Chicago. It may come down to something simple. When federalized, troops are paid on a higher federal scale. It pays more to work for the federal government than for the state.
My hypothetical question seems to fall not on whether the government could try to control the country via military force, but whether they have the resources to pull it off. What took a million troops in 1865 to control several states would require a significantly larger force in the present.
As of March 2025, there are approximately 2.6 million U.S. military personnel stationed domestically — this includes active-duty troops, reserve members, and civilian workers. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) employs approximately 20,000 law enforcement and support personnel across more than 400 offices nationwide and abroad. Provisions in the big, beautiful bill already call for expanding ICE by 50% to 30,000 agents.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employs approximately 80,000 law enforcement officers across its various agencies. That makes DHS the largest federal law enforcement body in the United States. The National Guard is part of the broader reserve force, which includes about 762,000 combined reserve and Guard members. The FBI has approximately 70,000 employees, the DEA has another 10,000, and the Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) has 8,000. The Secret Service, 13,000, and 22,000 U.S. Border Patrol agents, all potentially under the control of the president. Is 3.5 million people enough to take over a country with more guns than people? The question is, what stance will 1,3 million police officers and state troopers take? Will they follow their mayors and governors or their unions, who might well side with the president?
In the years following 1865, it was Congress driving the process. Such a takeover in 2025 would be under the president’s direction. There are Constitutional guardrails that could theoretically block him, but Congress and the Supreme Court have constantly ceded power to the Executive Branch. Congress trembles in fear, and the Supreme Court has granted him immunity in advance. Neither Congress nor SCOTUS has an army. Suppose the president ignores any directive they give; what would they do?
The president seems to favor a strategy of making an example of individual cities and states. The locations he’s already outlined are led by his political enemies and heavily populated by minorities. Chicago, Atlanta, Oakland, Baltimore, New York City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. He’s often mentioned the Insurrection Act and sees emergencies at every turn. One might ask why he would consider such an action. One might be to remain in power throughout his lifetime and to pass control to his family. He has already spoken of no need for further elections. The why is a concern for another day. My question is whether it is possible.
This post originally appeared on Medium and is edited and republished with author's permission. Read more of William Spivey's work on Medium. And if you dig his words, buy the man a coffee.