The Anatomy and Evolution of a Trump Lie
The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The Anatomy and Evolution of a Trump Lie

A case study in disinformation, deference, and denial.

Donald Trump is a habitual liar. In fact, he lies so often that by the time you fact-check the first lie, he’s told so many others.

On the first day of the Iran War, the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab, located in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province, was struck, causing great damage. Casualty estimates range from 165 to about 170 killed, most of them young girls between ages 7 and 12. The school was located near Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities, which analysts believe contributed to it being hit.

Within days, multiple independent analyses — including Bellingcat, CNN, and CBS News — found that the weapon used was a Tomahawk cruise missile. Only the United States in this conflict possessed Tomahawk missiles. Israel was not operating in the area.

A preliminary U.S. assessment leaked to CBS News concluded the U.S. was “likely responsible”, possibly due to outdated intelligence misidentifying the area as an IRGC military site.

Within hours of the attack. Donald Trump, knowing nothing, did what he always does: he lied. Trump promoted the theory that Iran fired the missile that hit the school. Pete Hegseth repeated the theory, suggesting Iran’s “own missile” was responsible for civilian deaths. The Iranian government accused the U.S. of deliberately targeting civilians.

Two days later, independent analysts indicated the missile was a Tomahawk. On days 3 through, CBS News and CNN reported that the U.S. may have struck the school based on outdated intelligence. On Day 10, U.S. Intelligence reported that the strike was likely carried out by America, possibly due to a misidentification of a nearby IRGC site. Hegseth has been questioned by reporters multiple times about the strike, settling on an answer that the strike was “under investigation". Marco Rubio referred questions to Hegseth and the Department of War. Anonymous Pentagon officials stated that “it wasn’t Israel.” Karoline Leavitt’s most recent statement was that the U.S. didn’t “knowingly” strike the school.

Not that we know of, Shawn. And the Department of War is investigating this matter.”

“I would just tell you very strongly the United States of America does not target civilians… unlike the rogue Iranian regime… and unfortunately many people in this room have fallen for that propaganda.”

Government officials generally stuck to the official line that the strike was “under investigation” and seemed prepared to repeat it ad infinitum until the issue went away. The media, as it often does, had forgotten Trump’s lie, moving on to the next news cycle. Then Donald Trump forgot his lines. On March 7, 2026, aboard Air Force One. Trump told reporters.”

“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.”

Trump looked to Pete Hegseth for confirmation. Hegseth mumbled something about the bombing being under investigation. Trump interjected:

“It was done by Iran. “We think Iran bombed the school.” “Very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.”

Hegseth added: “The only side that targets civilians is Iran.” Not quite repeating the lie but refusing to contradict the president.

What normally happens didn’t occur in this case. Nobody else was willing to say outright that Iran bombed the school. They didn’t directly refute Trump, but typically deflected to the Department of War position that the school’s destruction was “under investigation.” Nobody was explicitly backing the Trump version, not Hegseth, Rubio, other administration figures, or even Fox News. Then it was reported that the weapon that caused the blast was a Tomahawk missile. Tomahawks are manufactured only in the United States by Raytheon, and only four nations use them. America, the UK, Australia, and Japan have Tomahawks in their arsenal. As none of those other countries are involved in the Iran conflict, it seems to close the case that America launched the missile that killed the Iranian children.

Trump is pathologically incapable of admitting he is incorrect about anything. When caught in a lie, he expands it. When asked by reporters to acknowledge that American weapons had struck the school. He had three responses:

“It could have been a Tomahawk fired by Iran.”

“Iran… also has some Tomahawks. Whether it’s Iran, who also has some Tomahawks — they wish they had more — but whether it’s Iran or somebody else…”

“The Tomahawk… is very generic, it’s sold to other countries.”

Trump is apparently asserting that either the American company Raytheon, the only supplier of Tomahawks in the world, has been selling Iran Tomahawk missiles on the side, or there’s a Tomahawk black market out there. I’m fairly certain there are no used Tomahawks for sale.

Nobody is confronting Trump about his obvious lie about Iran possessing Tomahawks, the lie created to deflect from America accidentally striking a girls' school. Trump knows the media will stop asking as they always do, except in the case of the Epstein Files, which never goes away.

This lie didn’t spread because it was persuasive. It spread because no one in power was willing to stop it. And that is the anatomy of a Trump lie: not just the moment he says it, but the long, echoing silence that follows.

Trump is moving on to other lies, partially because he knows he won’t be held to account. It's what gives him the hubris to say things like this.